Poverty, ethnic tensions and China top agenda for Myanmar's new politicians

Poverty, ethnic tensions and China top agenda

for Myanmar's new politicians

The first session of Myanmar's newly-elected parliament featured representatives of the

Old military regime in green and the National League for Democracy in orange.

Photograph: U Aung/Xinhua Press/Corbis

Expectations were running sky high as Myanmar's first democratically-elected

parliament in more than 50 years, dominated by the former opposition National League

for Democracy (NLD), convened for the first time on Mondaylll tasked with choosing the

country's next president.

After decades Of stultifying military rule, all the talk was Of a new era and a fresh start.

"They (the peoplel hope that every problem will be solved automatically after the NLD

becomes the government," said Shwe Mann, the outgoing speaker of parliament

But the challenges ahead - political, practical, structural and strategic — are daunting.

Myanmar 2 remains riven by ethnic conflict involving, among others, the Shan, Karen,

Kachin and Lisu peoples. Taken all together, minorities comprise about 40% of the 52-

million population and most feel disadvantaged to some degree.

The outgoing president, Thein Sein, signed a national ceasefire agreement last October

with eight leading armed groups. But fighting continues in many states, where local

people seek greater autonomy and expanded rights over resources. Significant problems

also persist concerning political prisoners131 and minority activists held without trial.

Ending abuse of Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine state, and the broader issue of how to curb

Buddhist chauvinism, are Other urgent issues. Most Rohingya were barred from voting

and, for the first time since independence, they have no MP in parliament, the Burma

Campaign UK pressure group said(41.

Ruling National League for Democracy chairwoman Aung San Suu Kyi arriving at the first

session of the new parliament. Photograph: The Asahi Shirnbun via Getty Imag

The NLD, led by national icon and Nobel peace prizewinner Aung San Suu Kyi, is not best

placed to address this problem. It admitted before the election15 that Muslim candidates

were struck off its lists after pressure from nationalists.

Even with the national parliament in place, the unusually long transition to civilian rule

is far from complete. An NLD-led government has yet to be installed. Most of the new

MPs, from whom the new administration must be drawn, lack political experience. State

and regional assemblies have yet to start work.

The new president will not take over until April. Whoever that is, it will not be Aung San

Suu Kyi161. Her future role remains shrouded in uncertainty. Despite an 80% popular

mandate measured in parliamentary votes, she is barred from the highest office due to an

arbitrary constitutional prohibition engineered by the former junta.

Aung San Suu Kyi has said she will nevertheless be in charge 71 acting "above the

president", but it is unclear how this will work. She has so far given no indication who

will take over from Thein Sein, while the NLD has no clear number two.

Constitutional gerrymandering by the Tatmadaw — the military — means it also retains de

facto control of key security ministries, including borders and defence. In a national

crisis, as defined by the generals, the military has a legal right to take control of the

government, including management of the economy.

The longer these uncertainties continue, the more drawn-out the transition, and the

more handicapped the NID government is in implementing new policies, the greater will

be the impatience of voters for Aung San Suu Kyi to fulfil her mandate to bring real

change.

A man working at a brick factory on the outskirts Of Naypyidaw in Myanmar. Photograph:

Ye Aung Thu/AFP/Getty Images

As if this were not all difficult enough, Myanmar faces acute problems Of poverty and

child malnourishment, ramshackle education and healthcare systems, and a chronic lack

of modern infrastructure. The legacy of social division and inter-communal distrust is

formidable181 and will take years to overcome.

The NLD must also struggle with complicated strategic challenges. For years, China was

the Tatmadaw's closest friend and ally. In return for turning a blind eye to political

illegitimacy and human rights abuses, Beijing gained access to cheap natural resources

and lucrative contracts, such as the now halted Myitsone dam project19

The US and EU, in contrast, championed the pro-democracy cause, maintaining

sanctions on the junta. Even so, her overriding need to keep the army onside may lead

Aung San Suu Kyi towards an accommodation with Chinat101

, even if it means alienating

the west.

While Aung San Suu Kyi has adopted positions that are generally receptive to China's

interests, to the dismay of some supporters, the Chinese government has stirred up low-

level trouble in some border areas in order to gain leverage and make the army appear

indispensable, according to analyst Min Zin.

"Several political and military officials in Myanmar and intelligence officers in Yunnan

Isaidl they expect Beijing and the NLD to strike some kind of arrangement after the NLD

forms a new government in a few months," Min Zin wrote(lll

"China would press ethnic rebel groups to cooperate with the NLD on a national ceasefire

accord, handing Aung San Suu Kyi a victory that has eluded the current government. In

exchange, the NID would yield to important Chinese interests in Myanmar, such as

major infrastructure and investment projects."

Myanmar's so far limited democratic renaissance already has the full support of the west.

But in order to maintain the fragile internal political balance, both Aung San Suu Kyi and

the Tatmadaw require the support Of China, the regional superpower.

If either Of Myanmar's two major power groupings — the NID or the military — feels it is

losing ground to the other, it is to Beijing, not Washington or Brussels, that they will

turn. Given China's disdain for democracy and open societies, this level of influence is

not an encouraging prospect for Myanmar.

Response: Myanmar's response to their task ahead shows great wisdom and promise. While they are taking huge steps towards democracy they recognize that the transition will be difficult to say the very least. However, because of this huge change their government will go through years of transition and has the potential to be incredible unstable for a long period of time. Despite the hardships ahead there is much promise for Myanmar. This article is definitely biased towards Myanmar in that the author points out everything good that Myanmar is doing but fails to report any unwise or rash actions taken by the government. 

Citation: Tisdall, Simon. "Poverty, ethnic tensions and China top agenda for Myanmar's new politicians." 1 Feb. 2016. Guardian News and Media Limitied. 1 Jan. 2016. <http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/01/poverty-ethnic-tensions-china-myanmar-new-politics>